The public sees “Michigan State” and automatically pencils in a double-digit victory against a Group of Five opponent. Vegas knows this, which is why the Spartans are sitting as 10-point home favorites. But if you look past the jersey logos, Michigan State is a mess, while Toledo is an absolute wagon.

Michigan State’s offense ranks 101st in the nation in total yards (336.6 per game) and struggles to establish any kind of ground attack, ranking 107th with a meager 118.2 rushing yards per game. On the flip side, Toledo comes into East Lansing boasting a top-five scoring defense that allows a stingy 14.4 points per game and surrenders just 273.9 total yards per game. Toledo’s defensive success rate allowed sits at a microscopic 30.7%.

Our models actually project Toledo as the superior team straight up, favoring the Rockets by 3.4 points. Yet, we get to collect double-digit points with a team holding a +14.0 average scoring margin against a Sparty squad that sits at -7.4.

Gulp down the public narrative and slam Toledo +10.0 (-110). If you’re feeling adventurous, throw a flyer on the Toledo Moneyline (+310) to cash in on a Big Ten meltdown.