How in the world is Oklahoma State laying nearly two touchdowns on the road? If you’ve spent five minutes looking at the Cowboys’ box scores, you know this offense treats the football like a biohazard. Oklahoma State is trudging along at an abysmal 13.0 points per game (133rd in the country) and racking up a pathetic 286.4 yards per game (131st). Their offensive success rate sits at a putrid 32.3%. That isn’t college football; that’s a crime against television.

Meanwhile, Tulsa isn’t going to be raising any national championship banners, but they at least run a functioning offense. The Golden Hurricane average 388.8 yards per game and churn out a respectable 167.5 yards on the ground (50th nationally). Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 35.7 points per game, meaning Tulsa won’t exactly be going up against the ’85 Bears here.

The market opened this line at 11.5 and bumped it up to Oklahoma State -13.5, but our models have Tulsa projected as just a 3-point underdog. That gives us a massive 16.1-point edge on the home dog. Oklahoma State simply lacks the firepower to blow anyone out right now, let alone cover nearly two full touchdowns away from home.

Take Tulsa +13.5 (-110) and watch Oklahoma State struggle to score enough points to clear the spread.